WASHINGTON – A classified United States (US) government document reveals that China would defeat the American military in a war over Taiwan. The document also states that Beijing’s hypersonic missiles could sink America’s most advanced aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, in a matter of minutes.
Key points in the highly classified “Overmatch Brief” document were revealed by The New York Times. According to the document, the US’s reliance on sophisticated and expensive weapons actually makes it vulnerable to China’s ability to mass-produce cheaper systems.
A national security official under President Joe Biden who reviewed the document reportedly paled after realizing that Beijing had “backup after backup” for “every trick the US has up its sleeve,” according to a report by The New York Times. Losing Taiwan, the US’s main bulwark against Chinese power in the western Pacific, would deal a severe strategic and symbolic blow to Washington.
Washington’s most advanced aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford—recently deployed to the Caribbean Sea as part of the Trump administration’s crackdown on drug trafficking—has been frequently destroyed in the war simulations outlined in the document. The $13 billion (more than Rp216.7 trillion) vessel, which entered service in 2022 after years of delays, is vulnerable to attacks from diesel-electric submarines and China’s arsenal of approximately 600 hypersonic missiles, capable of traveling five times the speed of sound.
Beijing showcased its YJ-17 carrier-killing missile, estimated to be capable of traveling eight times the speed of sound, at a military parade in September. Despite this, the Pentagon plans to build nine additional Ford-class aircraft carriers, but has yet to deploy a single hypersonic missile. Eric Gomez, a researcher at the Taiwan Security Monitor, said the final outcome was unclear when he participated in a war simulation for the Taiwan conflict, but noted the US suffered heavy losses.
“The US lost a lot of ships in the process. Many F-35s and other tactical aircraft in the theater also experienced rapid performance degradation,” he told The Telegraph on Thursday (11/12/2025). “I think the high cost really hit home when we did the post-operation summary, and we said, ‘Okay, you lost over 100 fifth-generation aircraft, several destroyers, several submarines, several aircraft carriers,’” he explained. “It was like, ‘Oh my gosh, the losses are enormous.’”
Last year, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the US consistently loses Pentagon war simulations against China, estimating the Asian nation’s hypersonic missiles could destroy an aircraft carrier in minutes. China has significantly expanded its arsenal of short-, medium-, and long-range missiles, meaning they could destroy many advanced US weapons long before they reach Taiwan.
Meanwhile, five major defense companies, whose numbers have shrunk tenfold in the 1990s, continue to sell the US government more expensive versions of the same ships, planes, and missiles, according to The New York Times. Defense officials recognize the US’s vulnerability because these complex weapons are impossible to mass-produce, after a series of recent wars, including the Ukraine-Russia conflict, which have demonstrated the devastating capabilities of relatively inexpensive weapons like drones.
The US Congress has allocated approximately $1 billion to produce 340,000 small drones over the next two years. President Trump has appointed Dan Driscoll, the head of the US Army, as his “drone expert,” tasked with modernizing outdated American technology and countering enemy drone efforts.
However, the US remains behind its competitors, and experts have previously told The Telegraph that the US cannot compete on cost with countries like China, where labor costs are lower and regulations are looser. A decisive shift in US policy would likely require significant investment, but defense spending is at its lowest level in about 80 years, at around 3.4 percent of GDP.
